NFL playoff picture: First place changes hands atop an AFC division
Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 4.
Here’s where things stand with Week 13 underway:
AFC playoff picture
1. New England Patriots (10-2), AFC East leaders: Sunday’s narrow defeat of the Bengals gave the Pats the league’s best record, moving them past Denver and into the conference’s top spot. Good chance they hold onto it when they hit their off week. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
2. Denver Broncos (9-2), AFC West leaders: Being idle during Week 12 cost them first place in the conference, but you can bet the break was welcome − especially for a team that will need to be close to fully charged for a brutal four-game stretch at the end of its regular season. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3), AFC South leaders: They’ve dropped two of their past three to fall off the conference pace … and are now only one game ahead of Jacksonville and two better than Houston in the division. The next two intra-divisional matchups should be crucial. Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Jaguars, at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5), AFC North leaders: Baltimore’s Thanksgiving loss restores them to first place. A win over Buffalo on Sunday would help a lot more. Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Ravens, vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, vs. Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), wild card No. 1: They needed last week off … and Buffalo’s loss granted the battered Bolts improved positioning. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4), wild card No. 2: Wins over the Chiefs and Chargers could serve them well when it’s time to sort out tiebreakers. Despite beating the Bolts in Week 11, the Jags check in behind them because LA’s 6-2 record in AFC games gives it precedence in the current three-way wild-card tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Colts, vs. Jets, at Broncos, vs. Colts, at Titans
7. Buffalo Bills (7-4), wild card No. 3: QB Josh Allen took a beating − as did the Bills’ hopes of catching the Patriots in the AFC East race in last week’s loss to Houston. Now 4-3 in conference games, Buffalo sits behind the Chargers and Jags in the wild-card seeding. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, vs. Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
8. Houston Texans (6-5), in the hunt: They’ve won four of five, including three in a row without injured QB C.J. Stroud. If they want to win the AFC South for a third straight year, the Texans likely need to sweep the Colts while continuing their surge … but the pieces are falling into place for a late charge to the top. Remaining schedule: at Colts, at Chiefs, vs. Cardinals, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, vs. Colts
9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6), in the hunt: Not only will they almost certainly not win the AFC West for the first time since 2015, they could well miss the postseason for the first time since 2014 − Andy Reid’s second year in K.C. And don’t forget they’ve lost to the Broncos, Chargers, Bills and Jags, who are all ahead of them. Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, vs. Chargers, at Titans, vs. Broncos, at Raiders
10. Baltimore Ravens (6-6), in the hunt: A sloppy performance against the Bengals cost them first place in the AFC North and a slot in the projected playoff field. Unlike several other squads, the Ravens are also on the wrong side of a head-to-head tiebreaker with Kansas City. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Bengals, vs. Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
NFC playoff picture
1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2), NFC West leaders: While Philly owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, it doesn’t matter now that the Rams have the better record in the aftermath of the Eagles’ demise in Week 12. Still, LA has scant breathing room between itself and the Seahawks plus 49ers in the division. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Cardinals, vs. Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3), NFC East leaders: Last Sunday’s collapse likely won’t cost them the division. But it did drop them behind the Rams and served as another worrisome potential harbinger for the defending champs. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Chargers, vs. Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, vs. Commanders
3. Chicago Bears (8-3), NFC North leaders: They’ve won eight of nine since an 0-2 start to stunningly take over first place in the division. An inferior record (5-2) in NFC games keeps Chicago behind the Eagles. But the winner of their Black Friday matchup will assume sole possession of second place in the conference. Remaining schedule: at Eagles, at Packers, vs. Browns, vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs. Lions
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5), NFC South leaders: Their divisional lead over Carolina was (barely) restored Monday night, but it might not be worth much if injured QB Baker Mayfield is severely limited on the field. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Saints, vs. Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins, vs. Panthers
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-3), wild card No. 1: All three of the ‘Hawks’ losses are against NFC opponents, including two in the division − defeats that won’t serve them well in the tiebreaker department. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Falcons, vs. Colts, vs. Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1), wild card No. 2: They merely maintained their standing (for now) with their Thanksgiving win at Detroit, but a loss would have dropped them from the field entirely. A thin margin for the Pack to be sure … yet they’ll springboard into first place in the NFC North on Friday if the Bears lose at Philly. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens, at Vikings
7. San Francisco 49ers (8-4), wild card No. 3: Not a pretty win Monday night, but the Niners will take it as they solidify their hold on the conference’s final playoff spot. Remaining schedule: at Browns, BYE, vs. Titans, at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
8. Detroit Lions (7-5), in the hunt: Getting swept by the Packers further entrenches Detroit, which could have moved into a wild-card slot with a Turkey Day win, on the outside of the field. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Rams, vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1), in the hunt: Three wins in a row further fuels playoff aspirations in Big D. Next week’s game in Detroit looms as massive − and potentially must-win − for the Cowboys and Lions. Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Vikings, vs. Chargers, at Commanders, at Giants
10. Carolina Panthers (6-6), in the hunt: The Panthers (still) only have one win against a team (Green Bay) currently above .500 after losing in Silicon Valley on Monday night. But Carolina has beaten the .500 Cowboys, who they’re otherwise virtually tied with. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, BYE, at Saints, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers